It has been a few years I last wrote on this blog. I guess it was before my mother's illness. She suffered from GB Syndrome, an auto immune disorder. She was in critical care for over hundred days on a ventilator early 2016. She recovered in two years. The Corona lockdown seems like living it all over again.
We are in March 2020 and facing the most serious pandemic with little living memory of such circumstances and the entire global population is struggling to deal with it. The Corona virus is of zoonotic origin from possibly either bats or traded pangolins in the Wuhan region of China. It is known in the medical community as COVID19. There is little immunity in humans and no vaccine in sight, the virus is running riot and taking lives at will across the world. The most vulnerable are those with weak immunity, primarily it is the elderly, children or stunted youth.
The only workable solution to protect large populations from the menace and suffering of the viral infection is social distancing. People have voluntarily or by the writ of the state locked themselves in their home. In India we fall in to the latter category. The state has imposed restrictions on the movement of people. The state of emergency is due to the weak health care system in India. The primary and secondary care is relatively poor. The raging infection will put the existing infrastructure to test and it would just not be to cope with the pressure of infected patients flowing into hospitals with barely any critical care capacity in relation to the population.
We had organised a primary healthcare conference last year which addressed a lot of these issues. We produced a white paper from the conference that was never published due to the recommendations being completely contrary to the goals being pursued by the government. The leaders in government may now perhaps see some merit in particular increasing the budgeted amount for frontline healthcare.
The smart lockdown as it is called by the government is taking a massive toll on the labour and working classes particularly those people who had migrated large distances to seek employment within India. There are numerous stories of people who have walked 900 kilometres since the lockdown to reach their home deep in the hinterland of India.
It remains to seen whether this decision will yield results in limiting infection spread amongst the Indian hinterland in the villages where the concept of sanitation and hygiene is under par with the best practises. The pandemic may be an opportunity to bring some of those practises in to implementation. There is however no doubt that we will collectively suffer.
The economy has fallen off a cliff and we are staring at a depression hitting in the next 4-6 months. Economists such as Nouriel Roubini who predicted the economic crisis of 2008 seem to be echoing similar sentiments. In 2020, with the pandemic, it is demand and supply crisis spreading across the world all at the same time. Governments across the world have run out of policy instruments to address the challenges, with ballooning deficits and tax collection dwindling, we are likely to face a period of prolonged economic strain.
The poor across the world will suffer the most and inequality will hit the society very hard. Government leaders have to play a critical role in addressing the gigantic challenge before us. Epidemiologists have contrarian views, some believe COVID19 will run the course through the population over an 18-24 month period. While other contend it will be contained in the next six months. At any rate nations have begun to shut themselves off not only the borders but production capacity and productivity.
I can only hope that we collectively align ourselves and are able to bring out the best of the human endeavour. The alternative presents a gruesome scenario. Until a vaccine becomes viable in the next 18 months, we have to voluntarily distance ourselves in order to survive. We must also prepare for that which comes after the lockdown.
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We are in March 2020 and facing the most serious pandemic with little living memory of such circumstances and the entire global population is struggling to deal with it. The Corona virus is of zoonotic origin from possibly either bats or traded pangolins in the Wuhan region of China. It is known in the medical community as COVID19. There is little immunity in humans and no vaccine in sight, the virus is running riot and taking lives at will across the world. The most vulnerable are those with weak immunity, primarily it is the elderly, children or stunted youth.
The only workable solution to protect large populations from the menace and suffering of the viral infection is social distancing. People have voluntarily or by the writ of the state locked themselves in their home. In India we fall in to the latter category. The state has imposed restrictions on the movement of people. The state of emergency is due to the weak health care system in India. The primary and secondary care is relatively poor. The raging infection will put the existing infrastructure to test and it would just not be to cope with the pressure of infected patients flowing into hospitals with barely any critical care capacity in relation to the population.
We had organised a primary healthcare conference last year which addressed a lot of these issues. We produced a white paper from the conference that was never published due to the recommendations being completely contrary to the goals being pursued by the government. The leaders in government may now perhaps see some merit in particular increasing the budgeted amount for frontline healthcare.
The smart lockdown as it is called by the government is taking a massive toll on the labour and working classes particularly those people who had migrated large distances to seek employment within India. There are numerous stories of people who have walked 900 kilometres since the lockdown to reach their home deep in the hinterland of India.
It remains to seen whether this decision will yield results in limiting infection spread amongst the Indian hinterland in the villages where the concept of sanitation and hygiene is under par with the best practises. The pandemic may be an opportunity to bring some of those practises in to implementation. There is however no doubt that we will collectively suffer.
The economy has fallen off a cliff and we are staring at a depression hitting in the next 4-6 months. Economists such as Nouriel Roubini who predicted the economic crisis of 2008 seem to be echoing similar sentiments. In 2020, with the pandemic, it is demand and supply crisis spreading across the world all at the same time. Governments across the world have run out of policy instruments to address the challenges, with ballooning deficits and tax collection dwindling, we are likely to face a period of prolonged economic strain.
The poor across the world will suffer the most and inequality will hit the society very hard. Government leaders have to play a critical role in addressing the gigantic challenge before us. Epidemiologists have contrarian views, some believe COVID19 will run the course through the population over an 18-24 month period. While other contend it will be contained in the next six months. At any rate nations have begun to shut themselves off not only the borders but production capacity and productivity.
I can only hope that we collectively align ourselves and are able to bring out the best of the human endeavour. The alternative presents a gruesome scenario. Until a vaccine becomes viable in the next 18 months, we have to voluntarily distance ourselves in order to survive. We must also prepare for that which comes after the lockdown.
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